Research News

Trump’s authenticity making him popular, UB political scientist says

Donald Trump.

Although he's currently popular in the polls, Donald Trump's campaign style will come back to haunt him, UB political scientist James Campbell predicts. Photo: Gage Skidmore

By RACHEL STERN

Published August 6, 2015 This content is archived.

Print
James Campbell.
“He’s politically incorrect, disrespectful and odd, but he is authentic. Not exactly a breath of fresh air, but at least a breath of air. ”
James Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor
Department of Political Science

Donald Trump is the chief nonpolitician among Republican presidential contenders and, so far, that has helped him gain popularity in the polls, says UB political scientist James Campbell.

“He is authentic,” says Campbell, a nationally known political forecaster and UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science. “Sometimes an authentic oddball but, nonetheless, authentic. In an era in which candidates seem so overly processed — when so many speak without saying anything — Trump is the real deal.

“He’s politically incorrect, disrespectful and odd, but he is authentic. Not exactly a breath of fresh air, but at least a breath of air.”

Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic candidate, is the opposite, Campbell says. She is slipping in popularity because she seems to be so programmed, appearing more like a robot than a leader, he says.

But Trump’s campaign style will come back to haunt him as the Republican nomination process moves forward, Campbell predicts.

Trump is “extremely unlikely to be the Republican nominee,” he adds, because the party establishment is convinced he doesn’t have the experience or temperament to be an effective candidate or an effective president.

“He says what he thinks and it seems as though he often does not think it through very carefully or thoroughly. I’m not sure he has thought ahead very far,” Campbell says. “If he were somehow able to secure the Republican nomination, he would have to unite the other candidates and Republican leaders whom he has been busy calling names and otherwise denigrating.”

Campbell says it is not out of the question that Trump may run as an independent candidate if he fails to earn the Republican nomination.

With the first Republican debate scheduled for today, the big question is how Trump will conduct himself, Campbell says.

“These debates ought to be about which conservative Republican is best able to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election, but Trump, to this point, has derailed that,” he says. “The million-dollar question is whether he will respect Reagan’s 11th commandment and not speak ill of other Republicans and whether other Republican hopefuls will do the same.”

READER COMMENT

As a conservative, little "r" Republican, I'm very frustrated with the establishment in Washington. We elect Republican majorities in Congress to stem the damage this president is causing, but they seem content to proclaim how bipartisan they are. At the same time, the president continues to go around them and do what he pleases.

 

Trump seems to be able to get things done as evidenced by the projects he's done. His lack of political correctness is very refreshing. Adherence to PC has us patting down grandmothers at airports while letting 96 percent of the bombs through security, according to the latest test of the TSA.

 

It would be nice if he would be more specific in what he says. Also, he needs to tone it down somewhat -- not everyone works for him! If we're looking for a non-politician businessperson to turn things around, Carly Fiorina would be my choice. She hit it out of the park last evening at the debate.

 

Steve Fitzmaurice