Bush's Approval Ratings Should Improve After Rita

BUFFALO, N.Y. -- President Bush's approval ratings should improve as a result of the federal government's improved disaster response following Hurricane Rita, according to University at Buffalo political scientist James E. Campbell, Ph.D., an expert on presidential politics and election forecasting.

"I think President Bush's approval ratings bottomed out after the Katrina problems," Campbell says. "With a country that's politically polarized, I think a 40 percent approval rating is as low as a president would go.

"I anticipate his approval ratings will climb to the mid-40 percent range in the next week or so."

Stabilization of oil prices and continued economic growth will help Bush's ratings for the remainder of his term, Campbell says, but federal spending on hurricane relief and the war in Iraq will hamper some of his initiatives.

"This sort of hems in Bush in a lot of ways," adds Campbell, UB professor of political science. "It constrains his ability to push for tax cuts, and I think he'll put estate-tax reform on hold for a little while, but I think he's committed to keeping taxes low despite concerns about the deficit."

As for Bush's presidential legacy, Campbell says Bush's response to Katrina "will be seen as one of the more disappointing points in his administration," but he does not think it will dramatically affect Bush's legacy, nor does he think it will much affect the Republican Party's chances for reelection in 2008.

"This was a management issue that doesn't easily carry over from one candidate to another," Campbell says. "You can chalk it up too a bad appointment (FEMA head Michael Brown) and Bush took responsibility for that."

Campbell says it would be a mistake for Democrats to think that the Bush administration's poor response to Katrina will make the Republicans vulnerable in 2008.

"Democrats may feel emboldened by Bush's lower approval ratings and think they can nominate whomever they want," Campbell says. "But we will have a very polarized country still in 2008 and the Democrats have to be careful not to nominate a candidate who is too liberal for the mainstream."